The War of Two Worlds. Part 3

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Don’t lose sight of the big game: The hegemon is fighting for supremacy against a multipolar but heterogeneous world. The US’s sudden turnaround is as surprising as the fall of the Berlin Wall, but only concerns one piece of the mosaic.

Introduction

In Part 1, we discussed the strategy of the British and the Americans in the First and Second World Wars and showed that the narratives of these two major conflicts of the 20th century do not stand up to factual scrutiny. We also described the current difficult situation in which the Collective West currently finds itself.

In Part 2, we described the strength of the Global South, which is seeking independence from the centuries-long corset of the Collective West and has created an organization called BRICS, which is already the largest economic community our world has ever seen. The fact that this organization was not recognized by the West until recently and therefore not taken seriously does not help the West.

We have thus described the chess pieces in this great game in order to provide a basis for this third part of our series, in which I intended to discuss the course of this struggle. However, so as not to overwhelm our readers in terms of article length, I have decided to discuss the US’s turnaround in its policy towards Russia in this 3rd part, followed by a 4th part which will describe the long-term developments. The speed of developments in geopolitics is thus disrupting even the publication of a small series of articles, but this makes my life and hopefully the lives of our readers more interesting. I would like to take this opportunity to thank my friend and colleague Dr. Andreas Mylaeus. We spent an entire weekend trying to bring the current staccato into a digestible order.

Turnaround by the US

The most striking and serious development since President Trump returned to the White House is the Trump administration’s astonishing reversal of policy towards Russia and President Putin. Donald Trump already announced during the election campaign that he wanted to end the war in Ukraine. However, the 24-hour timeframe he propagated was campaign chatter and was also classified as such by us. Nevertheless, nobody had expected such a fundamental turnaround. In my opinion, the last time a geopolitical shift had such an impact and took everyone by surprise was the fall of the Berlin Wall.

The public has been surprised by a veritable staccato in recent days:

February 12, 2025 – Minister of Defense Pete Hegseth Brussels, Belgium

At the most recent meeting of the Ukraine Contact Group in Brussels on February 12, 2025, the new US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth presented the US position on the Ukraine conflict. NATO partners were surprised by three key statements made by the US: firstly, a return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders would be unrealistic. Secondly, NATO membership for Ukraine should not be seen as a realistic outcome of negotiations. Thirdly, any peacekeeping forces in Ukraine should not be deployed under the auspices of NATO and US troops would not participate in such an endeavor.

February 12, 2025 – Trump-Putin telephone conversation

On the same day, President Trump picked up the phone and called President Putin. Details of the conversation are not known, but both sides said afterwards that the conversation was productive and constructive. An indication of the breadth and depth of this conversation is the unusual length of the call, which lasted 90 minutes.

The subsequent telephone conversation between Donald Trump and (President) Selenski lasted only a few minutes and did not leave Mr. Selenski happy.

February 14, 2025 – Speech by US Vice President Vance in Munich

J.D. Vance’s incendiary speech in Munich on February 14 (our report) drew the public’s attention. At the same time as the general public, the entire political world elite was also informed about the US’s new strategy. The looks of consternation on the faces of the European elite during Vice President Vance’s speech were priceless. Vance’s key point was that the greatest danger for Europe was not Russia or China, but the danger from within, the destruction of freedom of expression.

February 18, 2025 – High-level US-Russia meeting in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

On February 18, 2025, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met. It was interesting to note that Yuri Ushakov, one of President Putin’s closest personal advisors, was also present, as well as the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) Kirill Dmitriev, who lived in the US, studied at Stanford and Harvard and worked at Goldman Sachs.

Yuri Ushakov is a heavyweight in the Kremlin and probably the closest foreign policy advisor to President Putin since 2012. Ushakov previously served as Russian ambassador to the United States (1998-2008). The Russian delegation therefore sent experts on America to Riyadh, personalities who know the mentality and business of the Americans not just from hearsay, but at close quarters.

Trump did not send special envoy Joseph Keith Kellogg, but Steve Witkoff, a proven dealmaker.

The composition of the two delegations alone shows that both sides did not see this meeting as a diplomatic preliminary skirmish, but that serious talks were held and substantive initial decisions were made.

Classification of this staccato

Russia demands a comprehensive restructuring

Donald Trump is keen to make a deal with the Russians regarding Ukraine. However, this rapprochement is not just about Ukraine for the Russians. They are aiming to put all bilateral diplomatic, military and economic relations on a new footing. In talks about a comprehensive bilateral new beginning between two world powers, the Europeans really don’t have a seat at the table – not even at the cat’s table. The fact that the Europeans are offended at not having been invited to the talks so far is therefore pure, unhelpful ego posturing.

The Russians are in such a strong position that they are demanding a comprehensive new start with the Americans. The Americans seem to be ready for this. Larry Johnson writes on February 19 that six working groups are to be set up as a result of the meeting in Riyadh. (1) Strategic Security and Arms Control Group; (2) Global Security Architecture Review Group; (3) Bilateral Diplomatic Relations Group; (4) Energy and Sanctions Group; (5) Ukraine Conflict Settlement Group; (6) International Affairs Group (Middle East, Arctic).

Background of American interests: Consolidation

The US has lost over 300 billion US dollars by withdrawing from its market with Russia. Furthermore, the Americans have invested astronomical sums in financial and military support for Ukraine and have not achieved any success.

The fact that Russia is economically stronger today than it was before 2022 is also an indication that the American interest in ending Western sanctions is at least as great as the Russian interest. The EU sanctions are significantly more far-reaching than the US sanctions. These have not only harmed the Europeans, but have also led the EU to the economic brink. The EU and Switzerland, which imposed even more sanctions on Russia than the EU, therefore have the greatest interest in reducing sanctions. The Europeans’ announcement that they will maintain the sanctions regardless of the US is therefore purely an act of defiance by offended losers. If sanctions are lifted on the American side, it is hard to imagine that the Europeans, and therefore also Switzerland, could and would want to maintain a sanctions regime, as this would mean leaving the largest European market to the Americans without a fight.

The Americans seem to have realized that they need to consolidate their forces in order to become more powerful again at a later date. Elon Musk’s DOGE shows that the Americans are keen to save money and neutralize inefficiencies. Whether Musk will ultimately really save trillions is impossible to estimate, but the effort is there and many Americans seem to support Elon Musk’s measures, even if this is not perceptible due to the mainstream media in the US, as it is mainly the aparatchiks who have their say and see themselves deprived of their sinecures.

It is also interesting to note that Trump’s statements on Panama, Canada and Mexico are a sign that the US wants to strengthen its influence in the immediate vicinity of its national borders.

A statement by the US Secretary of State is surprising in this context. Marco Rubio said on the Megyn Kelly Show on January 30 that the days of the unipolar world, which was a result of the end of the Cold War, are over, that a multipolar world is emerging and that the interests of the individual major powers – and thus also the US – must be resolved with cooperation and that we must also cooperate with powers – he named Iran and North Korea – “that you wouldn’t invite to dinner”. Rubio’s statements are eye-opening. It seems that the Americans are aware that a unipolar exercise of power, which began in 1945 and was intensified after 1991, is no longer a strategy that can realistically be implemented.

President Trump’s statements on the causes of the war

At an event in Zurich on March 22, 2024, I confronted the West’s narrative on the reasons for the war with facts. At the time, I was not surprised to be labeled a Kremlin propagandist by the Western mainstream media.

Today, President Trump seems to agree with us: The main cause of the Ukraine war was NATO’s eastward expansion:

Peter Hanseler's speech at Input Event in Kloten, Switzerland on March 22, 2024

Source: Peter Hanseler speaks at the InputEvent on March 22, 2024

Whether the Americans are actually convinced by this new assessment is, in my opinion, irrelevant. In any case, they seem to have realized that a complete geopolitical reorientation is necessary in order to maintain their grip on power.

In any case, the previous Western mantra of an “unprovoked war of aggression by Russia” is beginning to crumble considerably. For example, Steve Witkoff, Trump’s emissary for negotiations between the US and Russia, said in a CNN interview on February 24, 2025 that the Ukraine war was provoked, but “not necessarily by Russia” and the new US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said on February 23, 2025 in an interview with Fox News Sunday when asked about the causes of the war: “I think it’s fair to say it’s a very complicated situation.”

Europe runs the risk of becoming isolated

We have often reported on Europe’s attitude towards Russia. An atmosphere was created that was last seen in Germany in the 1940s, when the volume of propaganda slogans (“Do you want total war?”) increased in step with the downfall. As last time, this strategy was not successful this time either. The European economy is in tatters, on the battlefield they are losing and the repeated miracle weapons strategy was also unsuccessful (see our article from January 2023 “Miracle weapons, weapons systems and chatter”). Instead of adapting to reality, as the Americans are now doing, who are known for reinventing themselves within a very short space of time, Brussels and Berlin are coming out with slogans that are more reminiscent of Monty Python than realpolitik.

European states had prepared a draft resolution on the war in Ukraine for the UN General Assembly, which the US did not endorse. Instead, the Trump administration has submitted a counter-proposal and reaffirmed “that the primary purpose of the United Nations is to maintain international peace and security and to resolve disputes peacefully”. The paper does not explicitly name Russia as the aggressor, nor does it call for a withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory. Russia’s UN representative Vasily Nebenzia praised the US’s action as a “good step”. Western diplomats say that such a reduced text, which neither condemns Russian aggression nor refers to the territorial integrity of Ukraine, “comes across as a betrayal of Kiev and a sideswipe at the EU, but also as a disregard for central principles of international law”.

We have thus reached a point where it is evident that Europe and the US are openly confronting each other in the UN Glass Palace in New York – also a novelty. In the vote on the American draft resolution, the US has not yet been able to assert itself in the UN General Assembly. But the American draft resolution with the same wording was adopted by the UN Security Council with the votes of Russia and China by a ratio of 10 to 15.

I believe that there is no chance that Europe will be able to assert itself against the Americans in any way, because Europe not only has the Americans against it in New York, but also Russia and China as permanent members of the Security Council.

Annalena Baerbock, who – as always – makes statements that – we are at a loss for words – are not only unrealistic, but also ideologically stubborn, is representative of Europe’s completely hopeless actions.

Comedians will probably miss Foreign Minister Baerbock – she was an inexhaustible source of jokes

“We are increasing the pressure on the Americans that they have the maximum to lose if they no longer stand alongside the liberal democracies of Europe”

Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock

To completely dispel this statement, one need only ask two questions: First, how does Ms. Baerbock intend to put pressure on the Americans? Secondly, what does the US have to lose that Germany could take away from them?

Europe has completely lost its head. Instead of dealing with the domestic political chaos in their countries and their own economies, Europe is now in danger of becoming geopolitically isolated.

The outraged among themselves – Emanuel Macron and Keir Starmer – Source: Euronews

French President Emmanuel Macron classified Donald Trump’s change of course as an emergency and therefore convened an emergency meeting in Paris on February 17. The meeting was attended by Olaf Scholz from Germany, Keir Starmer from the UK, Giorgia Meloni from Italy, Donald Tusk from Poland, Pedro Sánchez from Spain, Dick Schoof from the Netherlands and Mette Frederiksen from Denmark. EU leaders who are critical of the EU’s policy on Ukraine were not invited. Only those who were expected to be able to reach an agreement were invited. Result: no agreement. A textbook example of a dwarf uprising.

As of February 25, 2025, however, there seems to be some movement here too. The German Tagesschau reports as follows: “US President Donald Trump and French President Emmanuel Macron discussed possible peace negotiations between Russia and the attacked Ukraine during their meeting in Washington. Macron was optimistic after the talks: at a joint press conference between the heads of state, he spoke of “substantial progress”. “I believe that today was a turning point in our discussions,” said Macron after the meeting.” It will be interesting to see what “turning point” these European turncoats will achieve – perhaps 360 degrees again, as Ms Baerbock would suggest?

The fate of Selenski

Europe’s major problem is that (President) Zelensky has been presented by the West since 2022 in a way that does not stand up to even superficial scrutiny.

The fact is that Zelensky was elected President of Ukraine in 2019 with a large majority – 73.22%. He owed this great result to his main election pledge: he promised his voters that he would make peace with Russia and strive for a fair and humane solution for the Donbas. At the time, he was still speaking his native language – Russian.

Things turned out differently. Under his rule, the ethnic Russian population was politically and culturally oppressed and Zelensky’s army shelled the civilian population of Donbass, especially Donetsk. Over 15,000 civilians died in the process. It was he who was responsible for the war against Russia. It was he who was responsible for the depopulation of his country. In 1991, 52 million people lived in Ukraine, today there are still around 21 million. Incidentally, around 16 million Ukrainians live in the country of Ukraine’s “mortal enemy” – Russia – and the number is rising. They live in freedom and with the opportunity to live their culture as they wish and without any hostility, because the Russians regard the Ukrainians as brothers. See our article from June 2023 “Catastrophic depopulation of Ukraine”.

The number of dead is currently probably around one million, plus around 2.5 million wounded. Young Ukrainians are being veritably hunted down by recruitment squads on the streets, in streetcars, in schools, restaurants and apartment blocks. Every day, vehicles belonging to recruitment squads are set on fire and their members are physically attacked by relatives of the young men – often mothers and grandmothers.

Since May last year, Selenski has been ruling without a legal basis, as he refuses to hold new elections – and with good reason. He himself claims to have an approval rating of 57% – President Trump says his approval rating is just 4%. The exact figure is difficult to determine, but it can be assumed that Selenski would probably not receive more than 10% of the vote.

The economy and the public sector in Ukraine would not be able to survive a month without billions in aid from the West.

From my circle of friends who have friends and relatives in western Ukraine, I hear that they could very well live with a peace proposal in the spirit of the Russians.

The big problem with Selenski is that – in good American fashion – he was dropped like a hot potato by President Trump. This was after he had behaved indecently towards the Americans. Selenski will not be able to hold on to power under any circumstances and his life is in danger: he has no popular support and he has lost his greatest ally. If Zelensky flees into exile in the next few days or weeks – to the UK, France or Italy, for example – no one should be surprised. Exile in sunny Florida no longer seems possible. On February 23, Zelensky attempted a coup when he offered to resign if Ukraine was admitted to NATO. A proposal that shows that Zelensky has completely lost touch with reality.

Will the Americans now become friends of the Russians?

Donald Trump is a good salesman and he is convincingly selling the current strategy to his people. He blames the US aggression against the Russians on the Biden administration and tells his people a completely new and this time true story about Russia and President Putin in order to be able to sell the possible peace and the end of the Ukraine conflict to his people as a victory.

The fact that Donald Trump did not even consult with his partners in Europe will only come as a surprise to those who believe that the US regards the Europeans as equal partners. This is not the case – the Americans regard Europe as a colony and so the approach makes perfect sense from an American perspective. It is not Donald Trump’s fault that the European stooges consider themselves more important than they are and wrongly assume that they are equal partners.

However, the change in mood has nothing to do with positive emotions. Personally, I always find it problematic when the word “friendship” is used to describe relations between countries. The only duty of a head of state in foreign policy is to protect his country’s interests – that has nothing to do with friendship. The Americans have solid reasons for their change of course. They currently have no chance against Russian military power – even with the help of NATO as a whole:

Firstly, the Ukrainians, supported by NATO with astronomical sums of money, have been left without a chance on the battlefield.

Secondly, the ammunition depots of all NATO countries are emptying very quickly, as the West cannot replace the weapons and ammunition supplied due to a lack of industrial capacity. In terms of artillery ammunition, the Russians produce ten times more than the whole of NATO. Western weapons systems are also inferior to Russian ones. Military experts such as Andrei Martyanov speak of a technological gap of one to one and a half generations between Western armaments technology and that of Russia.

Thirdly, the sanctions against Russia have had the opposite effect to what was planned and expected: Russia became economically stronger and the West – above all Germany – suffered from the sanctions.

The US’s reversal can therefore be qualified as opportunistic. The Americans seem to have finally recognized the seriousness of the situation and are responding constructively – in stark contrast to the EU. They have recognized that Russia cannot be defeated economically or militarily, that continuing this strategy will further strengthen Russia’s partnership with China and completely ruin the West over time. Trump’s invitation to Russia to rejoin the G7 is to be understood in such a way that Trump intends to break the Russians away from the Chinese and BRICS. One remembers when Kissinger and Nixon traveled to China in 1972, not to become friends with the Chinese, but merely to drive a wedge between China and Russia. Now this is being attempted again, this time simply with Russia. However, I don’t give this endeavor a chance. It is absolutely clear to the Russians that Trump is acting opportunistically. Even if Trump’s intentions are sincere and sustainable, there will be a new president in the White House in four years at the latest and it is quite possible that the old deep-state strategy will then be revived. In the first part, I already referred to Noam Chomsky, who supports this thesis.

Conclusion

Donald Trump realizes that attacking Russia head-on is not a wise course of action. It is in the interests of both the Americans and the Russians that direct relations between these two heavyweights are normalized.

The main reason why the Europeans are completely losing their cool over this abrupt development is multi-layered: firstly, Russia is entering these negotiations from a position of strength; this is driving the warmongering Europeans to white heat, as they do not want to admit that they have lost. Secondly, years of European hate propaganda against an enemy that is now winning are now having consequences. The statements made by European politicians were such that the people concerned can no longer pursue a credible foreign policy. You cannot call President Putin “Hitler” for years and then announce during a visit to the Kremlin that it was all just a big misunderstanding. The ladies and gentlemen concerned must therefore necessarily be replaced – as has already happened in the US. Thirdly, the dwarf rebellion now being organized by several European leaders and the EU – such as the statement that EU sanctions would continue regardless of US policy – is not evidence of wisdom. It will be a matter of time before those people in the US who instruct their subjects in Europe are replaced and then Europe – above all Germany – will once again stand at attention and march with the colonial masters. The policy propagated by Friedrich Merz after his election victory of acting independently of the US would be a blessing for Germany. In this case, however, relations with Russia would have to be normalized, which does not seem to be the case at the moment. Emancipating itself from the US and not having normal relations with Russia at the same time does not work.

The divided and factionalized Europe is only held together by the common enemy Russia. Hence the panic that peace could suddenly “break out”. Friedrich Merz is also doing all the wrong things domestically by not including the AFD in the government. Germany has voted “center-right”. With the firewall that Friedrich Merz continues to propagate, he is giving the people a “center-left” government and thus trampling the will of the people and democracy underfoot. Germany will be completely isolated in terms of foreign policy and the new coalition will not get anything done in terms of domestic policy. We will have to wait for the new chancellor’s first visit to Washington; I assume that the Blackrock servant Merz will shout “jawohl!” and not “nein, nein, nein!”.

The Russians are under no geopolitical pressure to resolve the Ukraine issue in the near future. They are winning on the battlefield, have a great standing in the Global South and the people are supportive of the government. After all, the Russians have a growing economy and therefore time. That is geopolitics. In human terms, however, the Russians are very keen to end the dying as quickly as possible and the population is looking favorably on a turnaround with the Americans.

Donald Trump wants to use the momentum he now has thanks to the support of his people and is trying to consolidate his geopolitical powers. The Ukraine conflict is costing immense sums of money, weapons and ammunition from warehouses that are already more depleted than one would like. He wants to stop this bleeding.

The Russians always think long-term. Simply settling the military conflict in Ukraine is not enough for Russia. They want to reach a comprehensive understanding with the Americans that includes disarmament, the economy, conflict resolution and more. They have apparently succeeded in convincing the US to cover such a broad range – a sign of how strong Russia’s position actually is.

This also shows the different approaches of the Americans and Russians: The Americans are deal-makers and work transaction-based, the Russians implemented their comprehensive strategy. This can be seen, for example, in the fact that President Putin incorporates the interests of BRICS into this strategy and treats them as partners. President Trump (currently) cares little about the interests of European countries, as he sees them as colonies.

In the short term, the turnaround is good news for the world, as it currently seems possible to end the Ukraine conflict. This is a blessing for Ukraine and Russia – nobody likes to see piles of corpses of fathers and sons. However, this bloodbath does not matter to those who have made monetary or political gains from this war – above all the Western military-industrial complex, bought politicians and journalists, of whom there are an overwhelming number and who are now – rightly – seized by fits of panic, as Elon Musk will apparently succeed in tracing the flow of payments – for example from USAID – to Europe – including Switzerland?

What nobody expected could happen. Peace, the lifting of sanctions, with the result that many people in Europe will then claim never to have been Russophobic. History repeats itself: “We had nothing to do with the whole thing”.

The last time I saw such a surprising geopolitical turnaround was when the Wall came down in Germany. Back then, many people also thought that eternal peace had broken out, but that didn’t happen.

I see the Ukraine war and its possible end as just one piece in the mosaic of a larger, gigantic conflict that is already underway: the war of the worlds. Part 4 will continue.

Peter Hanseler

Continuation